Agent Based Modeling and Simulation of Causal Maps

This paper provides a background discussion of agent-based modeling (ABM) and simulation and its support for strategic decision support. Causal mapping is introduced as a structured method for situational formulation and analysis of unstructured strategic problems. Causal mapping includes specific processes and analytical approaches offering cognitive modeling support for problem formulation and scenario planning. A prototype system for the development and simulation of causal maps that uses RePast 2.0, a java based ABM simulation library is described. The research opens the door to using human/agent-based conceptual models to guide intelligent searches of internet, intranet and extranet space. Given the wealth of information available from such sources, the development of a human-artificial conceptual map will be an invaluable guide to selecting relevant information for strategic decision making.